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EUR/USD forecast: Dollar should survive before it thrives

EUUSD forecast: Dollar should survive before it thrives

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

Investors do not believe in the U.S. economy and sell off the U.S. dollar

When the U.S. economy looks like a bubble, the dollar can’t but fall. Investors have not been confused by the biggest rise of the U.S. manufacturing PMI since February 2019. The U.S. employment in the private sector added 165,000 jobs in July, sharply missing expectations of more than 1 million new jobs. The number of jobless claims, according to the experts polled by the Wall Street Journal, should continue rising. When people had money granted by the government, they spent it. Now, they have run out of money. Democrats and Republicans can’t reach an agreement on the extra financial aid package, and this is a big problem.

Dynamics of U.S. employment

Source: Wall Street Journal
The $600 unemployment boost expired on July 31. It will result in a sharp decline in household spending and a slowdown in the U.S. GDP recovery. In the middle of summer, over 12 million people received benefits, which allowed them to pay rent, utilities, auto, and other loans. Now, financial aid has finished, and the debts continue growing.
The unemployment benefits, supporting consumer spending, is only the tip of the iceberg. The US labor market is weak, which kills the hope for the V-shaped GDP rebound. According to the poll of the National Federation of Independent Business, about 20% of firms plan to lay off workers after using the loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. According to Cornell University, one in four workers, recruited back through the program, received a notice that they could be fired again.
The grim outlook of the U.S. economy contrasts with the confidence in a soon rebound of the euro-area GDP, which is signaled by the euro-area PMI report, which is stronger than the flash data.

Dynamics of euro-area PMIs

Source: Bloomberg
According to the Societe Generale, there is no doubt the dollar has made a cyclical turn now and should continue falling amid the current Fed’s monetary policy stance and the outlook for the U.S. growth over the next few years. 33 of 62 experts surveyed by Reuters said the USD bear trend would continue for at least another six months. 15 analysts, said it would be less than six months. While 11 said it would be less than three months, just three respondents said it was already over. The consensus view suggests the EUUSD will be trading at 1.18 in August 2021, which is the highest in a year.
In my opinion, the market is too fast. It starts pricing the weak data on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July. As a result, volatility risks are growing. The euro could grow first, and, next, it could fall even faster, as big traders should be exiting longs. However, we should see the publication of the U.S. jobless claims data, which can push the EUUSD up above 1.192. I recommend holding the long positions opened at level 1.173 and preparing for exiting a part of trades.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Using Technical Analysis on High Impact News Events

Using Technical Analysis on High Impact News Events
I have shown in several of my posts how my technical analysis strategies can be very effective in moves that seem to be news driven. Up to now, it's been mainly small events. Some guy says something about Brexit. Trump tweets. Little price movements, low impact events. Now I'll show you it on interest rates (the biggest regularly recurring fundamental events).
Here are the trades I took shortly after the ECB announcement.
Here was my fundamental preparation for these trades.

I don't know there is an ECB decision today. None of my trade plans have Euro in them, and I've just filtered for high impact news on currencies I'm trading. Someone I am chatting with on WhatsApp said the ECB are morons and they have to go because there's going to be volatility. I think to myself, "Yeah. ECB are morons". Then about 5 minutes later wonder if anything substantial has happened.
Open EURUSD chart. See patterns. Execute trades.

After this I Google "ECB".
This is not part of the analysis, it's just a little tip to techy traders. Sometimes you're going to encounter people who know fuck all about trading but here about these things and reference them to you, because you're the 'Forex guy/girl'.
What I do takes quite a bit of explaining. It's a bit dry. Not fun at parties. Know what I am saying. So, instead of having to do that, now I can just say;
"Woah. Yeah. You see that too? Wild stuff. Draghi went with the stimulus. Trumps not happy! I'll tell you that. DXY surely took a hit".

Social Indicators

I've said throughout my posts we often can get information that this sort of event has happened from forum chatter.

I am not being unkind when I say this. It is true. There were multiple posts asking about Euro pairs in immediate aftermath of this event in Forex you can clearly see from timestamps that the times these questions were being asked and answered was a great time to be executing buys.

I explained this sort of move we can get off of news events here.

(Note, I said ' few weeks' because this was referring to larger timeframe analysis)
The announcement comes out. It spikes towards the 61.8 and then sells off strongly. It reverses sharply close to the lows, and then begins to make parabolic moves upwards.
I draw a fib extension from the bottom to the top of the big 15 minute candle. I am watching for what happens around the levels, and mainly on the 1.61% level.
When I see this little doji like candle on the 1.61% fib, I am entering. My stops can go right under the lows here. I scatter them a bit because the market is very volatile at the time and may spike low, but my 6 pip stops survive.
Even although looking at everything 'right there' this looks like a sell. The news. The momentum. The new breakout. Despite all this, this starts to scream "BUY" at me. Often one of two things happen, I lose a quick small trade, or I make 1:10 + RR trades. Good spot, as far as I'm concerned.

These things take a lot of practice. If you try and rush out and think you can do this any time there is a news event you'll get destroyed. Unfortunately there is much more that goes into this than I can cover. I know how to do this right because I've done it wrong 100 times. It's really hard. Until you can do it, then it's really easy. Funny how that works. If you put in a lot of effort, these things can be done.

Footnote: I do not trade in the minutes after the news event or the minutes before. These are times where anything can happen, and most of the things would not be good. I'm always waiting until 15 minutes or so after to start to make assessments.
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

How to correctly draw support and resistance levels

How to correctly draw support and resistance levels
(This post is mainly for beginners in Forex that are struggling in support and resistance levels, although you more experienced guys might also learn a thing or two, this also doesn't go over how to use them to enter trades, although I could make a post about it if it is requested)

How to correctly mark support & resistance in most markets

First thing to realise is that s&r levels are not really levels, they are zones, sometimes the price just misses the level and other times it goes just over, but it still reverses/breaks out off the general level. You will rarely find the exact level of where the price will reverse. There is no exact criteria on what makes a level significant levels, but you will eventually get better as you pipe in more experience into the market.

What even is a support/resistance zone?
Simply put a support or resistance zone is a price the market has had experience with before. In the book "Naked Forex" Alex Nekritin puts perfectly that s/r zones are just market scars. Market scars that the price has visited before and will try to stay away from as best as it can (but sometimes breakouts occur, more on that later).
Do zones expire?
This is very subjective, some say the older the level the less valid it may be, and others vice versa. I personally believe they don't expire and significant zones stay valid unless disapproved by appropriate price action. Your answer may be completely different, everyone's experience with the market is different
What are these "breakouts"?
Breakouts are when the price doesn't respect the level. Most of the time the price respects a level and reverses off it, however that can only happen for some time, (if this happens for a period of time where the price is bouncing off a support and resistance it is known as consolidation). Of course it can't keep trading in a range forever, breakouts have to happen. Breakouts mostly happen within high volatility, either from news or just the time the market is open, however the price can also just wonder through the zone, creating a less volatile breakout. You may also experience the price going over a zone and then returning into it;

On chart 1 below you can see a bland chart, just load up any trading software and you should see something like this. We can see the price recently has been on a decline on the last four candles.
EURUSD H1 (Chart 1)
To the untrained trader, this looks like guess work to place a good significant level. Wicks flying everywhere, this is where tip #1 comes in.

Tip #1: Change your candlestick chart into a line graph
EURUSD H1 (Chart 2)
This very simple tool removes all of the wick clutter and just gives a nice line of how the price has been moving (Keep in mind this only shows the close of the time frame and doesn't include wicks). Thus it makes marking s/r lines way way easier. Just off this you can place lines where the price has reversed, don't add too many as that could also be too bad for you (check tip #2)
Another thing to keep in mind is that if a price curves and reverses, this usually shows a stall on the zone and is an important level to manage. (Check Chart 3)
On Chart 3 you can see some levels I've added in that respond to the recent price on the line chart:
EURUSD H1 With S/R (Chart 3)
After you've added your s/r you can switch back to normal candle sticks to further evaluate your zones.
EURUSD H1 With S/R Candlesticks (Chart 4)

Tip #2: Don't over-add unnecessary levels
This mostly occurs if you don't have patience with the market and want to rush into a trade. Don't try and scavenge for any little s/r zone as they could easily end up failing if they haven't been tested and confirmed. It will also prevent you from finding any valuable trades.
You don't want your chart looking like this, where would you even start looking for an entry?
Jumble of messy lines
Tip #3: Draw major zones on higher time frames
Say you enter your trades mostly on H4, draw your major zones on the D1 chart. As well as this you can draw minor zones in time frames smaller than your usual one, like from H4 to H1.
Just a little tip you could keep in mind.

Those are just three tips that really help me out when drawing my s&r zones (they might not work out for you but it's worth giving them a shot) and I have tried making this post as beginner friendly as possible, so I really hope you all learned something from this post.

This post was heavily inspired by Naked Forex, you can find a PDF of it here
Edit: Typos
submitted by indicasFinest to Forex [link] [comments]

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submitted by sannidhyammf to u/sannidhyammf [link] [comments]

share buying tips

Forex Margin Trading : a trading system where investors can trade at USD 100,000 but only use 1% guarantee is USD 1,000 . Forex Margin Trading is a form of investment in which the relatively small margin we can transact sell or buy currencies in the world with a high rate of return . Instruments traded in the forex market is a currency pair ( pair ) such as EURUSD , GBPUSD , USDJPY , AUDCHF , GBPJPY etc . Market Participants : Central Banks , Foreign Banks , Institutions Non Bank Financial ( Brokers , Insurance Companies , Investment Manager , etc. ) , Exporters / Importers, Traders Large , Investor ( Individual / Corporate ) share buying tips : Trading Forex Trading traded with Assurance System that has a main condition as follows: 1. Transactions carried out with a two-way Open BUY - SELL Close Open SELL - BUY Close 2. The investment fund is required only for WARRANT position open trade (Open BUY or SELL Open) and if the position of the trade has been closed (Close BUY or Close SELL), and may be in withdrawal or in traded back for the next transaction. 3. The purpose of the transaction is to gain of SPREADS buying and selling by the formula calculation of profit / loss. 4. Guarantee capital to trade starting from 1 - 10% or under the rules of account opening and regulations of Stock Index Futures Trading and Forex Trading. 5. Transactions carried out in standard units LOT with MINIMUM ot or multiples thereof. 6. Online Trading Transactions performed with Traders use Metaquotes Software Version 4:00 or 5:00 TAKORADI, Ghana\_/share\_buying\_tips/r346179\_Who-is-share-buying-tips/Ghana.html
submitted by Dellaly to u/Dellaly [link] [comments]

I want to learn how to predict the market on charts...I am a pattern trader and i dont know how to chart anything.

I posted THIS before.
If you read through it you can see that i am a pattern trader (not sure if this is the correct term for it)
but that is how i trade and for the most part i am profitable and it works, BUT i want to learn what i see here, where people actually post their analysis on WHY they think a certain pair is going to move up or down and post it on the chart as to why.
My strategy is:
For example right now I have a Buy on the EURUSD for .01 I am currently losing -8.14 at BUY 1.04730 I know when losing anything in the 7 dollar range to sell on my bigger account. It doesnt really involve time frames much as it does overall movement of a currency, currently the EURUSD is moving down. So thats where im going.
I have 1 sell lot at 7 dollars at 1.04018 currently at $476 blue
I have 1 sell lot at 6 dollars at 1.03980 currently at $1.92 Blue
I have 1 sell lot at 5 dollars at 1.03896 currently at -$185 red
I have 1 sell lot at 4 dollars at 1.03940 currently at $24 blue
I have 1 sell lot at 3 dollars at 1.03944 currently at $33 blue
I have 1 sell lot at 2 dollars at 1.03865 currently at -$136 red
I have 1 sell lot at 1 dollar at 1.03833 currently at -$95 red
my initital buy was at 1.04730, which is how i recognize the pattern.
currently up $203 with movement for shorting
The M30 and H1 frame are at peak so im expecting it to go back down to me losing about -$11.00 peak low on the smaller account because it has already hit that today for resistance
so whatever that makes me for the day and im out
EDIT 1: Its more of a personal technique which i found works like 80-90% of the time for me so i understand why it wouldn't work for you. At least not immediately. I've been doing this for over 6 months so i have a bit more experience with this under my belt, and while im not an experienced Forex trader whatsoever. I feel like i have found what works for me. I hope what i wrote down help id take screenshots but im working at the moment
What i want to learn is THIS
Do i just go around and see what they do or what programs do you use for those lines, how do you make an estimate of where exactly to buy and sell. Where you think the direction is moving and when you think its going to stop.
TL;DR want to learn how to chart analysis for pairs, including exact BUY numbers, SELL numbers and where it is going to stop. Currently pattern trader. Dont use charts to analyze much apart from generic direction. Teach me senpais
submitted by rawrtherapy to Forex [link] [comments]

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Learn How to Read Charts - CBD #63 EURUSD (110 Pip Trade ...

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